I am not a detective, but it seems to me that if you can figure the motive for a crime, you are half way there to discovering the perpetrator.
So in trying to fathom the extraordinarily baroque machinations of the Lockerbie affair, I will start with asking why the Scottish Government gave consent to the release of that bloke, Mr Megrahi. If, on the surface of it, the release of a mass murderer was actioned on compassionate grounds, at the very least, you would expect the Scottish Government to have weighed and understood the consequences of this. I would have expected, at the very least, a "sounding out" of opinion, with particular reference to the USA. I would not expect them to fall over and have their tummies licked, but all the same, there had to be some thinking behind what is on the face of it, an extraordinary decision.
An appeal was due. Is it possible, I ask you, that the appeal would have been won and that the original conviction proved unsafe or "not proven"? I wonder if politicians in the Scottish Government found this scenario too difficult to deal with and took what they thought was the "soft" option?
Then of course, is the complicity of Number 10. Does it surprise me that Gordon Brown is silent on the issue? Do bears defecate in the woods?
In whose interests was it to cause the release of Abdelbaset al-Megrahi? Was it the Scottish Government trying a damage limitation exercise in the light of a possibly successful appeal? Was it the greater business and political interests at stake?
Whatever the motives on the release of a convicted terrorist and whatever the truth, it will not bring back the lives of those who died and it will not comfort those who loved them.